When Donald Trump met President Zelinski in New York last September, then US presidential candidate confident that he could bring war in Ukraine to an early end. “If we win, I think we will get a solution very quickly,” he said.
To what extent was contrast over time. In a television discussion a few days ago, Mr. Trump promised that he would “get it before he became president.” This was an escalation of his previous commitment in May 2023 to stop the fighting in the first 24 hours of his presidency.
Mr. Trump was now in office for more than two months and the shark began to decline in the White House trying to end the bitter and complex conflict like this may take time.
In a television interview at the end of last week, the US president admitted that when he promised to end the war in one day, he was “a little sarcastic.”
There are many reasons for the slower progress than the Trump team expected.
First, the president’s belief may be the power of his individual personal diplomacy in his place. I have long believed that any international problem can be solved if he sits with another leader and agreed to an agreement. Mr. Trump He spoke for the first time to Vladimir Putin on February 12And a half and a half conversation described it as “very productive”. The two leaders Talk again on March 18.
But it is clear that these phone calls have failed to secure the temporary ceasefire for 30 days. The only objective concession that was pressured by Mr. Putin was a promise to end Russian attacks on Ukrainian energy facilities, which is an obligation that Ukraine accused of violating it Within hours of call.
Second, the Russian president explained that he does not intend to rush. His first public comments on negotiations came last week at a press conference that was a full month after his phone call to Mr. Trump.
Mr. Putin has shown that he firmly opposed a two -stage strategy in the United States of searching for a ceasefire before talking about a long -term settlement. Instead, he said that any talks should address what he deems “the radical causes of war”, that is, his fears of NATO alliance and the presence of Ukraine as a sovereign state that represents a threat to Russia’s security in one way or another. He also set up detailed questions and conditions that must be answered and fulfilled before any deal is agreed upon.
Third, the American strategy to direct its initial focus on Ukraine may be estimated. The White House came to believe that President Zelinski was an obstacle to peace. Western diplomats admit that the Ukrainian government was slow to realize the world’s change with the arrival of Mr. Trump.
But the American pressure on Kiev, who has now a notorious confrontation in the Oval Office – when Mr. Trump and his vice president, JD Vance, the Ukrainian leader – consumed time, effort and political capital.
Relationships are also torn, and the situation of Europe and the United States, which is another diplomatic problem that took time to stability. All the time, Vladimir Putin sat and enjoyed the show, and he intended his time.
Fourth, the tremendous complexity of the conflict makes any decision difficult. The Ukrainian show was initially for a temporary ceasefire in the air and the sea. The idea was that this would be relatively clear to monitor.
But in the talks last week in Jeddah, the United States insisted that any immediate stopping should also include the front line of more than 1,200 km in the east. Immediately, which made logistics to check any ceasefire more complicated. This, of course, was rejected by Mr. Putin.
But even his approval of the most humble proposal – to end the attacks on energy infrastructure – is not without its problems. The details about this proposal, which will occupy many technical negotiations that are expected to take place in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on Monday. Energy and energy experts will set detailed lists for potential or nuclear power plants – which may be protected.
They will also try to agree on weapons that should not be used. But agreeing on the difference between energy and other civilian infrastructure may take some time. Remember: Ukraine and Russia do not talk to each other; They participate separately and in a bilateral manner with the United States, which promises to be shown between the two sides. This adds again to time.
Fifth, the United States focuses on the economic firefighting benefits of attention on the priority of ending the fighting. Mr. Trump has spent time trying to agree to a framework agreement that gives us companies access to critical Ukrainian metals. Some saw that this is investing in the United States in the future of Ukraine – and others because it sails the country’s natural resources.
President Zelinski initially argued that he could not approve a deal only if the United States promised to provide Ukraine with security guarantees to deter Russian aggression in the future. The White House refused, saying that the presence of mining and workers will be enough. In the end, Mr. Zellinski acknowledged the defeat and said he would agree to the metal deal without security guarantees. But despite this, the United States has not yet signed the agreement, hoping to improve the conditions, perhaps by including or even ownership of Ukrainian nuclear power plants.
The end of the wars can be complex and take a long time. We did not reach this stage without pushing Trump, but progress was not fast or simple as he believed. In December 2018, while carrying out a campaign for the presidency, Volodymyr Zelensky suggested that negotiations with Vladimir Putin would be completely clear. “You need to speak in a very simple way,” He told the Ukrainian journalist, DMyTro Gordon. “What do you want, what are your circumstances?” He told them: “Here is our points.” We will agree somewhere in the middle. “
Well, on evidence of the last two months, it may be more difficult than that.
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