- It appreciates the Australian dollar, as it struggles with the US dollar amid the escalation of commercial tensions and increasing economic interests.
- RBA governor, Sarah Hunter, confirmed that the central bank will be cautious about future price discounts.
- American economic data is added to the investor’s concerns, with retail sales in February.
The Australian dollar (AUD) is gaining a ground for the third consecutive session on Tuesday. AUD/USD pair reinforces the US dollar weakness (USD) amid increasing trade tensions and increasing economic interests in the United States (United States).
Sarah Hunter, the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA), stated late on Monday that the central bank will take a cautious approach to price discounts. February statement indicated that the RBA Council is more conservative than market expectations regarding more mitigation. Hunter also emphasized the monitoring of US policy decisions and their impact on inflation in Australia.
Aud may face pressure as US President Donald Trump confirmed plans to impose mutual and sectoral definitions on April 2. Trump stressed that there will be no exemptions for steel and aluminum and stated that the bridled tariff will be carried out in specific countries in addition to the duties of cars.
The Australian dollar found support after China provided a special action plan during the weekend aimed at promoting consumption and improving market morale throughout the region. The plan includes measures to raise wages, encourage home spending, and install stock and real estate markets. Any positive developments related to the Chinese motivation plan can support AUD, given the role of China as a major commercial partner in Australia.
The Australian dollar is estimated due to the high uncertainty for investors on the US dollar
- The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar for six main currencies, is trading around 103.50 at the time of writing this report. It fights the US dollar as the disappointing American economic data and the identification threats of Trump that feed the uncertainty among investors. US retail sales increased in February, raising concerns about a possible slowdown in consumer spending. The markets are widely expecting that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its current stance of politics when it concludes its two -day meeting on Wednesday.
- The American Statistical Office reported on Monday that retail sales increased by 0.2 % months in February, as market expectations decreased by 0.7 %. This follows a revised decrease of -1.2 % in January (previously reported by -0.9 %). On an annual basis, retail sales grew by 3.1 %, a decrease from 3.9 % revised in January (previously 4.2 %).
- Michigan University (UOM) has reported a decrease in the first consumer morale index on March on Friday, where it decreased to 57.9 – the lowest level since November 2022 – from the previous reading of 64.7. This number also came less than the consensus than 63.1. Meanwhile, consumer inflation forecast jumped for five years to 3.9 % in March, compared to 3.5 % in February.
- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessin said late on Sunday that he was not concerned about the stock market despite multiple declines resulting from Trump’s introductory threats. “I have been in investment for 35 years, and I can tell you that the corrections are healthy. It is normal. What is unhealthy is a market that only moves straight,” Bessent.
- US President Donald Trump’s decision to support a 25 % tariff on Australian aluminum and steel exports, at a value of about one billion dollars. This step adds stress to trade expectations in Australia, which affects major exports.
- Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albaniz stressed that Australia will not impose a mutual tariff on the United States, with the focus that reprisal measures will only increase the costs of Australian consumers and fuel enlargement.
- China’s retail sales grew by 4.0 % year on January to February, which improved an increase of 3.7 % in December. Meanwhile, industrial production increased by 5.9 % on an annual basis during the same period, which exceeds 5.3 % of prediction but is slightly less than the previous reading of 6.2 %.
Technical Analysis: The Australian dollar can test 0.6400 barrier near its highest level for three months
The AUD/USD pair hovers around 0.6380 on Tuesday, while maintaining a thunderbolt look while continuing the height inside the emerging canal on the daily chart. The 24 -day relative indicator (RSI) remains higher than 50, which enhances the upscale momentum.
The couple may try to re -test its three -month height at 0.6408, and it was reached on February 21. The collapse above this level will enhance the bullish bias, which may push the AUD/USD pair towards the upper boundaries of the emerging canal near 0.6480.
On the downside, the initial support on the SISESESAI is 0.6330, followed by the lower boundaries of the channel ascending at 0.6320 and 50 days EMA at 0.6311. The decisive break, less than the decisive support area, may weaken ups, which exposes the AUD/USD pair to the low pressure towards the lowest level in six weeks at 0.6187, registered on March 5.
Aud/USD: Daily Chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage of change in the Australian dollar (AUD) against the main currencies listed today. The Australian dollar was the strongest against the Japanese yen.
| US dollar | euro | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | Nzd | Chf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | 0.06 % | 0.06 % | 0.19 % | 0.03 % | -04 % | -16 % | 0.07 % | |
| euro | -06 % | -02 % | 0.13 % | -04 % | -11 % | -0.23 % | 0.00 % | |
| GBP | -06 % | 0.02 % | 0.14 % | -0.03 % | -0.12 % | -0.21 % | 0.02 % | |
| JPY | -0.19 % | -0.13 % | -0.14 % | -0.17 % | -0.23 % | -0.38 % | -0.13 % | |
| CAD | -0.03 % | 0.04 % | 0.03 % | 0.17 % | -06 % | -18 % | 0.04 % | |
| Aud | 0.04 % | 0.11 % | 0.12 % | 0.23 % | 0.06 % | -0.12 % | 0.11 % | |
| Nzd | 0.16 % | 0.23 % | 0.21 % | 0.38 % | 0.18 % | 0.12 % | 0.23 % | |
| Chf | -07 % | -0.00 % | -02 % | 0.13 % | -04 % | -11 % | -0.23 % |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen from the left column, while the quotation currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage offered in the box will represent AUD (Base)/USD (Quote).
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and commercial balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports in exchange for what it pays for its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends on buying imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
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