The Australian dollar rises despite the strongest US dollar, eyes on the feelings of Michigan

• It strengthens the Australian dollar amid high commodity prices, including gold, steel and iron ore.
• AUD was subjected to pressure after President Trump’s decision to maintain a 25 % tariff on Australian aluminum and steel exports.
• The US dollar is strengthened, as traders were digested for the most softened producers’ price index data expected on Thursday.

The Australian dollar (AUD) is supported by high commodity prices, including gold, steel and iron ore on Friday. However, the AUD/USD pair may face pressure from the US dollar reinforcement (USD) amid increasing concerns of the global economic slowdown.

One of the main challenges of Aud comes from US President Donald Trump’s decision to support a 25 % tariff on Australian aluminum and steel exports, which are worth about one billion dollars. This step adds stress to trade expectations in Australia, which affects major exports.

Nevertheless, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albaniz stressed that Australia will not impose a mutual tariff on the United States, with the focus that reprisal measures will only increase the costs of Australian consumers and fuel enlargement.

In addition to the market concerns, the deputy governor of RBA Andrew Hoser previously highlighted that the uncertainty in global trade is 50 years of height. Hauser warned that continuous tariff policies and economic tensions can delay investment in business and economic growth.

Meanwhile, reports from Bloomberg indicate that US -Chinese trade negotiations are still blocked. Chinese officials claim that the United States has not set clear steps on the measures related to the fentanel required to alleviate the customs tariff. In addition, sources near the White House reveal that there are currently no plans to hold a personal meeting between the United States and Chinese leaders.

The Australian dollar may face challenges, as global trade tensions affect market morale

• The US dollar index (DXY), which measures the dollar against six main currencies, was strengthened after the unemployed demands for positive work and the price of the most soft producers index (PPI) that was released on Thursday. At the time of writing this report, DXY is trading around 104.00 where the markets converted into consumer morale data on Friday.
• In the labor market, initial unemployment demands in the United States came 220,000 for the week ending March 7, less than expected 225,000. Continuous claims also decreased to 1.87 million, less than 1.90 million expectations, indicating flexibility in the labor market in the United States.
• Meanwhile, inflationary pressures showed signs of mitigation. The US Product Prices Index (PPI) increased by 3.2 % year on an annual basis in February, a decrease from 3.7 % in January and less than 3.3 % of market expectations. The basic product price index, which excludes food and energy, increased by 3.4 % annually, compared to 3.8 % in January. On a monthly basis, the main product price index has not changed, while the basic product price index decreased by 0.1 %.
• With inflation and the strength of the labor market, traders and investors will closely monitor the upcoming consumer confidence data and expect inflation for more ideas about the monetary policy expectations for the Federal Reserve and the future guidance of the US dollar.
• The US dollar has faced challenges as the most soft inflation report closed speculation that the Federal Federal Reserve (Fed) can reduce interest rates sooner than expected.
• Inflation slowed the monthly address in the United States to 0.2 % in February, a decrease from 0.5 % in January, while basic inflation decreased to 0.2 %, less than 0.3 % expected. On an annual basis, the main inflation decreased to 2.8 % of 3.0 %, while the basic inflation decreased to 3.1 % of 3.3 %.
• President Trump threatened to impose a 200 % tariff on all European wines and champagne through his account on social media during a session on Thursday in the early United States, which raised widespread fears in global markets.
• Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer announced late Thursday that he would vote to keep the government open as the Chamber is preparing to consider the Republican Party financing bill on Friday.
• US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lottennik late Thursday said the administration aims to balance the budget during the term of President Donald Trump, and to target a three -year schedule for this.
• Consumer enlargement forecasts in Australia, and consumer expectations of future inflation decreased over the next 12 months, to 3.6 % in March, a decrease from 4.6 % in February – the highest level since April 2024.

Technical Analysis: The Australian dollar is broken to less than 0.6300, an upward channel

AUD/USD is trading near 0.6290 on Friday, with technical analysis indicates a decreased shift after breaking the bottom of the emerging canal on the daily chart. In addition, the relative strength index decreased for 14 days (RSI) to less than 50, indicating the beginning of the Habbudian view.

On the negative side, the AUD/USD pair in the area can move around the minimum for five weeks at 0.6187, registered on March 5.

The AUD/USD pair tests the immediate barrier on a nine -day SIA moving average (EMA) of 0.6295, followed by EMA for 50 days at 0.6303. A break above these levels can improve the short and medium momentum and support the husband to explore the area that reaches a three -month height at 0.6408, on February 21.

Aud/USD: Daily Chart