- The Australian dollar decreases with the increase in global trade interests before the potential US tariffs.
- A Reuters poll suggests that the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) will keep fixed prices in April.
- Annual GDP (GDP) has grown by 2.4 % in the fourth quarter of 2024, which exceeds 2.3 % expectations.
On Friday, the Australian dollar (AUD) is weakening the US dollar (USD), erasing gains from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair decreases amid the increasing aversion to the risk, driven by concerns about the imminent US automatic definitions.
US President Donald Trump signed an order on Wednesday to impose a 25 % tariff on car imports, which escalates from global trade tensions. These aggressive commercial measures are likely to pressure relations with the main commercial partners, even before the mutual tariff planned on April 2.
A Reuters opinion poll on the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) indicates that the central bank will maintain fixed prices in April. Each of the 39 Economists expects that RBA will maintain the price of money by 4.10 % on April 1. However, the average expected predicts price discounts in 2025, with the basic points reduction in May and September, up to 3.60 % by Q3.
RBA is expected to gradually reduce the primary high inflation at 3.2 %, decreased unemployment, and restore economic growth. The capabilities may reduce the hinges of Q1 inflation data, as about 75 % of economists expect a reduction.
Economists believe that RBA will maintain the price of money unchanged in the political meeting on April 1, describing it as “dead rubber” in the context of the broader monetary policy. However, it maintains their expectations to reduce the rate in May.
The Australian dollar is struggling as a flag in US dollar, amid increased risks
- The US dollar index (DXY), which tracks the dollar for six main currencies, hovers around 104.30, and is pressing due to the decrease in American revenues, and is 3.99 % for bonds for two years and 4.35 % for 10 -year bonds at the time of writing this report.
- The range of US total local products (GDP) was expanded at a rate of 2.4 % in Q4 2024, exceeding 2.3 % expectations, according to the data issued on Thursday. Investors are now waiting for the US Personal Consumption Expenditure Index (PCE), which was later identified on Friday.
- MOODY’s has warned that increasing customs tariffs and tax discounts can significantly expand the government deficit, which may reduce American debt classification and high treasury revenues.
- S& P Global warned that uncertainty in politics in the United States can inhibit global economic growth, while Fitch ranch has highlighted that the current customs tariff may strongly affect smaller economies such as Brazil, India and Vietnam, making it more difficult for them to provide American goods.
- Susan Collins, President of the Federal Reserve (Ferrd), said on Thursday that the Federal Reserve is facing a difficult decision between maintaining a restricted political position or proactive behavior in anticipation of the deterioration of economic conditions.
- Meanwhile, Richmond Reserve President Thomas Parkin warned that the economic uncertainty caused by the Trump administration’s commercial policies could be forced to the most cautious and look at what the markets expect.
- The head of the Federal Reserve at St. Louis Alberto Muslula Salim made strong statements on Wednesday, as he joined an increasing number of federal policy makers who warn of the Trump administration tariff policies. Musalem has warned that these measures disrupt the stable American economy, increase uncertainty, and pushing inflation to the top.
- President Trump has announced plans on Wednesday to reduce the customs tariff for China to facilitate the sale of Bitayns for American Tijook operations. While stressed that the customs tariff carries a greater value than the TIKTOK itself, it suggested that reducing the slight tariff can help in completing the deal. Trump also alluded to the possibility of extending the deadline for selling Tiktok again.
- On Wednesday, Trump suggested plans to impose a tariff on copper imports within weeks, although the Ministry of Commerce was initially until November 2025 to make a decision on this issue. However, this development provided some support to AUD, because Australia is a major source of copper.
- Australian Treasury Secretary Jim Chalmers presented the budget of 2025/26 on Tuesday, which led to the determination of the main economic expectations and tax discounts, which total about $ 17.1 billion through two rounds. The budget deficit is expected to be $ 27.6 billion, compared to 2024-25 and 42.1 billion dollars, compared to 2025-26. GDP growth is expected to reach 2.25 % in the fiscal year 2026 and 2.5 % in 2027. The tax cuts seem to be aimed at enhancing political support.
The Australian dollar hovers about 0.6300, EMA for nine days, the borders of the upper channel
AUD/USD hovers near 0.6290 on Friday, with technical indicators indicating a potential fasting shift as the husband challenges the descending canal style. However, the 24 -day relative index (RSI) remains slightly less than 50, indicating constant declining pressure.
The SIA moving average for nine days (EMA) operates at 0.6304 as an immediate resistance. The collapse above this level may strengthen the short -term momentum, and the door opens for a monthly higher test at 0.6391, the last time it was reached on March 18, followed by the highest level in three months at 0.6408.
On the negative side, failure to obtain gains may lead to the payment of the AUD/USD pair to the descending channel, which enhances hippocampus expectations. In this scenario, the husband can decrease towards the lowest level in seven weeks at 0.6187, registered on March 5, followed by the lower boundaries of the channel at 0.6170.
Aud/USD: Daily Chart
Australian dollar price today
The table below shows the percentage of change in the Australian dollar (AUD) against the main currencies listed today. The Australian dollar was the weakest against the Japanese yen.
| US dollar | euro | GBP | JPY | CAD | Aud | Nzd | Chf | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US dollar | 0.00 % | -02 % | -18 % | 0.05 % | 0.13 % | 0.26 % | 0.03 % | |
| euro | -01 % | -05 % | -0.23 % | 0.02 % | 0.11 % | 0.22 % | 0.00 % | |
| GBP | 0.02 % | 0.05 % | -18 % | 0.07 % | 0.15 % | 0.27 % | 0.06 % | |
| JPY | 0.18 % | 0.23 % | 0.18 % | 0.24 % | 0.32 % | 0.44 % | 0.23 % | |
| CAD | -05 % | -02 % | -07 % | -0.24 % | 0.08 % | 0.19 % | -01 % | |
| Aud | -0.13 % | -11 % | -0.15 % | -0.32 % | -08 % | 0.11 % | -0.10 % | |
| Nzd | -26 % | -0.22 % | -0.27 % | -0.44 % | -0.19 % | -11 % | -0.21 % | |
| Chf | -0.03 % | -01 % | -06 % | -0.23 % | 0.01 % | 0.10 % | 0.21 % |
The heat map shows the percentage changes in the main currencies against each other. The basic currency is chosen from the left column, while the quotation currency is chosen from the top row. For example, if you choose the Australian dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US dollar, the percentage offered in the box will represent AUD (Base)/USD (Quote).
Questions and answers in Australian dollars
One of the most important factors for the Australian dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Australian Reserve Bank (RBA). Since Australia is a resource -rich country, the other main engine is the largest export price, iron ore. The health of the Chinese economy, the largest commercial partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, the rate of growth and commercial balance. Market morale-whether investors are eating more risky assets (risk) or searching for safe materials (risk)-is also a worker, with positive risks for AUD.
The Australian Reserve Bank (RBA) affects the Australian dollar (AUD) by determining the level of interest rates that Australian banks can persuade each other. This affects the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3 % by setting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates are supported compared to other main central banks, and relatively low vice versa. RBA can also use and tighten quantitative dilution to influence credit conditions, with previous AUD negative and positive to AUD.
China is the largest commercial partner in Australia, so the health of the Chinese economy is a major impact on the value of the Australian dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy does a good job, it buys more raw materials, commodities and services from Australia, raising the demand for AUD, and raising its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy does not grow at the speed available. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, they often have a direct impact on the Australian dollar and its wives.
Iron Ore is the largest export in Australia, as it represents 118 billion dollars annually according to data from 2021, with China as its main destination. Therefore, the price of iron ore can be an engine for the Australian dollar. In general, if the price of iron ore rises, the AUD also rises, as the total demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of iron ore decreases. Iron ore prices also tend to increase the possibility of a positive commercial balance for Australia, which is also positive for AUD.
The commercial balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports in exchange for what it pays for its imports is another factor that can affect the value of the Australian dollar. If Australia produces very required after exports, its currency will obtain a value of the excess demand created from foreign buyers who seek to buy its exports in exchange for what it spends on buying imports. Therefore, the positive net trade balance enhances AUD, with the opposite effect if the trade balance is negative.
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