President Trump said he trusts President Vladimir F. Putin is from Russia to abide by any peace agreement on Ukraine negotiating. Many of the Russians who fled the country in the first months of the war are not sure.
They also do not have great belief that the conditions that pushed them abroad-including the campaign against any political opposition-will change any time soon, whether Mr. Trump managed to mediate the ceasefire or not. Currently, these talks have been suspended since Mr. Putin refused a proposal from Mr. Trump and Ukraine on a 30 -day truce.
“The war will end when Putin has ended,” said Pavel Snoop, real estate agent from Saint Petersburg, who fled to Türkiye three years ago. He added: “Putin will continue to bargain: but he does not hold his country and his citizens, but because of the sanctions on relief for himself and his friends.”
Lymelin, future About 800,000 Russians Those who fled their country after the invasion is a sensitive political and economic issue. Their existence is a blatant reminder that many Russians opposed the war, or at least they do not want to fight it.
Experts say that the exit of many people, who tend to higher education and work in the professional fields that rise in demand, was also harmful to the economy.
But even if they are nostalgia for the homeland and fight to put roots elsewhere, many Russians abroad do not believe that the Kremlin will stop the persecution of people because of their anti -government position regardless of what is happening in the battlefield in Ukraine.
A survey conducted by the research project that exceeds this About 8,500 Russian immigrants In more than 100 countries from July to November, before the start of the shooting talks, it showed that only a small share was planned to return to Russia if the war ends.
While the survey does not represent all Russian immigrants, it showed that about 40 percent of the respondents in the survey said they would look back if they saw democratic changes in Russia.
“At the present time, confidence in the Russian government is very low,” said Emile Kamalov, a part of the Outrush team, based in Italy and the United States, who studied Russian immigration.
On the last Friday in Istanbul, immigrants from Russia are mostly in the 1930s and 1940s, mixing with glasses of sparkling wine and kombucha at the opening of a Black Matach exhibition.
But many of them have friends or family who are still in Ukraine, and they say that their tribulation is faded compared to what they have passed: loss of lives, widespread destruction and Russian occupation.
Mikhail, 37, who said he was working in the field of entertainment, described the experience of uprooting his wife and young daughter from Moscow in March 2022, shortly after the Russian invasion began widely. He asked not to use his title, for fear of revenge against his wife, who, unlike him, sometimes visits Russia.
Now he settled in Istanbul, Mikhail says he would like to visit Moscow without fear of holding it from the street and formulating to fight in Ukraine.
After a first wave immediately after the invasion of Ukraine, the Russians, especially the young fighting age, intensified in the fall of 2022 when Mr. Putin announced a partial mobilization.
Some have returned after the Kremlin stopped issuing calls for civilians, but the mobilization decree is still technically valid. This means that the government can compel any Russian civilians of military age to serve.
Mikhail said: “Return back, even on the agenda for us now.” “Russia will need to end the filling at least, at least, so that I and others feel that we are no longer in danger.”
He said that he saw “no concrete steps” by the Kremlin that would make him change his opinion about the direction that Putin was taking his country.
Russian officials did not provide any general indication that they were planning to reduce things on the internal front.
Vyacheslav v. Volodin, the Russian Speaker, has recently doubled threats against Russian immigrants Saying that those who left It should “come and repent on the red arena.”
Other legislators were formulating laws to pursue the Russians participating with “Maad” Foreign organizations – Or those who spoke only against the war.
Within two weeks after the war protests in Saint Petersburg in 2022, after his arrest and love, Mr. Snoub, the real estate agent, reserved one -way ticket to Istanbul and said goodbye to his parents.
This decision proved that it was previously: after six months of the war, and after leaving, Mr. SNOP was issued from the army. When his father died in 2023, he could not go to the funeral, for fear of arresting the draft rotation and its anti -war activity.
After three years of combustion through his savings and struggled with ascending and landing in exile, Mr. SNOP created a company in Istanbul last summer with a local partner recommended real estate deals for his Russian colleagues.
He said that the idea of ​​returning to his old job in his beloved city in St. Petersburg is attractive, but he does not want to return to a country that he sees increasingly authoritarian.
He added that some Russians are now taking precautions when returning home, including clearing their social media accounts, to avoid troubles with the authorities. His dream is to “be able to come to my favorite city, without deleting the telegram, speaking loudly and freedom in the bus and in cafes.”
Constantine Sonin, a professor of economics at Chicago Harris College of Policy, said that the departure of many young people may cause deep damage to economic development in the long term of Russia.
He said: “The migration of brains is a major blow to the economy, and the youth and the most promising promising was the first to get offers and departure.”
the Reception poll Show that 80 percent of Russian Immigrants Obtaining a university degree, compared to the average in Russia by 54 percent.
Professor Sonin said that some of the economy sectors were severely wounded, such as information technology and higher education.
In some host countries, the well -educated Russians flowing with high purchasing power to stimulate an economic boom: in Armenia, the economy grew in 2022 by 14 percent, as economists partially attribute to Russian immigrants.
It is clearly disturbed by the journey of thousands of young professionals in IT, some Russian officials in the first months of the full invasion Try to attract them again With preferential mortgage rates and postponement of military service.
But the Kremlin has largely abandoned such efforts.
Olig Cerenosov is among those who said it is unlikely to return any time soon.
He arrived in Istanbul in March 2022 without any Turkish savings, before creating the black mustache store, where the last exhibition was hosted by a friend of Saint Petersburg, along with a large group of books in English.
Mr. Chernosov said, whatever the result of the ceasefire talks, the main concern of the migrants he knew was the erosion of freedoms in Russia. He does not believe that the close relations between Washington and Moscow will reflect this.
“I don’t think Trump is interested in what is happening inside Russia – democratic change in Russia is certainly not dependent on this,” he said.
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