- EUR/USD counterattacks of the lowest level of the day 1.0765 after the launch of inflation data in the United States for February.
- The European Commission for the United States plans to escape the mutual tariffs in Trump and cars.
- Inflation in Spain and France grew at a moderate pace in March.
EUR/USD bounces with the euro recovery (EUR) strongly after the European Commission (EC) indicated that it has made concessions to the United States (the United States) to escape some customs tariffs from President Donald Trump, which will be announced on Wednesday. The European Union (the European Union) determines that it is supposed to manage the Donald Trump to secure the partial removal of the American definitions that have already begun to hit the bloc’s exports, which are scheduled to increase after April 2.
The European Union’s attempt to make concessions to the United States may reduce negative commercial war concerns between the euro and the United States. Fears of an outstretched trade war escalated after the European Commission warned retaliatory customs duties on the United States for imposing a comprehensive tax of 25 % on cars. German car makers send 13 % of their total car exports to the United States, and can make a 25 % tariff for cars on cars less competing in the global market.
“We regret the automatic definitions by 25 % and a new set of upcoming measures on April 2, but we are preparing for all these things,” said Ulof Jill, a spokesman for the European Commission. When asked about the degree and timing of revenge measures, Gill refrained from directing the exact time, but he stressed that he would be “in time, strong, calibrating well and will achieve the intended effect.”
Participants in the financial market and German leaders have warned that the customs tariff for cars will be a losing position for both countries. “Trump’s decision is wrong,” German counselor Olaf Schools said on Thursday, adding that the United States has chosen a road at the end of “losers only” since the definitions and isolation of prosperity “for everyone had damaged.”
European Central Bank officials (ECB) also expect that Trump’s definition agenda will harm economic growth in the eurozone and enhance inflationary pressures in the short term. European Central Bank Vice President Lewis de Gindus said that the effect of definitions on inflation will be temporary, but it will be fixed on growth. “For growth, the trade is very harmful,” said De Gindos. Regarding monetary policy directions, De Gindos said: “It is very difficult to determine what the European Central Bank will do in April.”
On the economic front, initial inflation data in France and Spain showed in March that price pressures rose at a slower pace than expected. In 12 months to March, the consumer price index in France (CPI) (the European Union standard) steadily increased by 0.9 %, and slowed down from 1.1 % estimates. In the same period, the Spanish Consumer Prices (HICP) has grown at a slower pace of 2.2 %, compared to the previous version of 2.9 %.
Digest Market Mark: EUR/USD counterat
- EUR/USD turns positively after recovering the losses inside the day and rose to nearly 1.0820 during the trading hours in North America on Friday. The main currency pair is reinforced with the US dollar decline (USD) after the issuance of the Personal Consumption Expenditure Index for the United States (PCE) for February. The US dollar index (DXY) decreases to approximately 104.00, although the report showed that the primary inflation of PCE – which excludes volatile foods and energy prices – rose at a faster 2.8 % on an annual basis compared to 2.7 % estimates and January reading by 2.6 %. In the month, basic inflation data grew 0.4 %, faster than expectations and previous version by 0.3 %.
- The importance of PCE’s basic inflation data is high as it is closely tracked by Federal Reserve officials (Fer) to measure inflationary pressures. US President Donald Trump is expected to force the expected growth in PCE inflation before announcing the imminent mutual tariff by US President Donald Trump on April 2, to enhance expectations that support the Federal Reserve to maintain interest rates in the current range of 4.25 % -4.50 % for a longer period.
- It is expected that the imposition of mutual definitions by US President Trump on economic growth and enhances inflationary pressures around the world, including the United States. Trump has also announced a 25 % tariff for cars that enter the United States on Wednesday, which will be valid since April 2. Trump tax led to global chaos in shares of cars and self -regulation manufacturing companies.
- Federal Reserve officials (Fed) express their fears of recovery in prices in the short term due to the Trump tariff agenda. “It seems imperative that the customs tariffs will increase in the near -term inflation,” Susan Collins, Boston Bank president at Boston Bank, said at an event on Thursday. Collins added that it appears that the increase in inflation is now “short -term”, but warned of “possible risks” that high prices may be continuing in nature. Regarding the interest rate expectations, Collins said that keeping it at its current levels for a longer period “is likely to be suitable.” However, the Federal Reserve should appear “active patience” and stand ready to be “flexible”.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD maintains 20 days from EMA
The euro/US dollar rebound from the lowest level during the day 1.0765 to approximately 1.0820 in the North American session on Friday. The 20 -day SIA moving pair (EMA), which trades around 1.0760.
The relative strength index cools for 14 days (RSI) to less than 60.00, indicating that the upscale momentum has ended, but the bullish bias is sound.
Looking down, the highest level on December 6 of 1.0630 will serve as the main support area of ​​the husband. On the contrary, the psychological level of 1.1000 will be the main barrier of euro bulls.
Customs fees are common questions
Customs duties are useful customs duties on some imports of goods or a category of products. Customs duties are designed to help local producers and manufacturers to be more competitive in the market by providing the price feature on similar goods that can be imported. Definitions are widely used as fever tools, along with commercial barriers and import shares.
Although customs tariffs and taxes generate government revenues to finance public goods and services, they have many differences. Customs duties are pre -paid in the entry port, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and companies, while customs duties are paid by importers.
There is a school of thought between economists regarding the use of definitions. While some argue that definitions are necessary to protect local industries and address commercial imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that can push prices up in the long term and lead to a harmful commercial war by encouraging customs tariffs.
During the period before the presidential elections in November 2024, Donald Trump explained that he intends to use the customs tariff to support the American economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42 % of the total imports of the United States. During this period, Mexico emerged as the best source with $ 466.6 billion, according to the American Statistical Office. Thus, Trump wants to focus on these three countries when imposing definitions. It is also planned to use the revenues created by definitions to reduce personal income taxes.
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