Anatomy of the motivation gathering

Using Elliott Wave (EW), we have succeeded in tracking the most likely forward path for SP500 (SPX) for several months. Indeed in November last year, we found

“The final diameters (EDS) because all their waves include three waves: 3-3-3-3-3. Besides, W-III usually targets 123.60 % of Wi, measuring from W-II. Then the W-IV tends to correct the return to an extension of 61.80 %, after which the last WV targets an extension of 161.80 %. In this case, we are looking at W-III to reach SPX6060 at least, and W-IV should be the bottom of SPX5725, and it can reach at least SPX6260“

(Ramadi) W-III occupied December 6 at $ 6099, and the W-IV (gray) W-IV came out on January 13 at SPX5773, while (Gray) WV only reached $ 6147 on February 19. See Figure 1 below. The previous two waves reached the ideal targeted areas based in Fibonacci (gray squares) for a coordinate, while the latter was less than his goal (gray arrows). Although the price is the final ruling, the markets do not condemn anything to us, anyThey do not have to reach perfect targeted areas, such a big idea is uncommon and disturbing to this number of potential wave. More on that later.

Figure 1. Elliott wave number for SP500 since August 2024

It is, in our previous update, we showed that the index had a last chance to reach the Fibonacci extension 161.80 % at $ 6260, and depends on keeping less than the lowest level on that day ($ 5732), especially the level of $ 5650. If not, it may decrease to $ 5250. Quickly forward, and so far, SPX reached $ 5504 yesterday.

If we minimize, we find that the indicator reached its climax when the liberalism is 100 % of the 2020-21 rally, 6121 dollars for $ 6147 measured from the level of 2022. See Figure 2 below.

Figure 2. Elliott wave number for SP500 since March 2020, also known as Covid Low

In the standard motivation based on Fibonacci, the third wave of a third tends, in this case (red) W-III from (Lions) W-3, to target the extension of 100-123.6 % of W-1, the measuring of W-2. The fourth wave often returns to the night extension 61.8-76.4 %, followed by the fifth wave that aims to extension 138.2-161.8 % to complete the third most important wave. In this case, the targeted areas are $ 6121-6738 dollars, $ 5498-5117 dollars, and 7122-7746 dollars, respectively. To date, SP500 has reached $ 6147 and $ 5504, near 100 % and 76.4 % extensions, after a few tenths of a point.

Although in this case, the W-IV (RD) W-IV of the Black W-3 should be targeted perfectly 61.80 % because W-III has reached a 100 % extension, it is not necessary, since 4^Y The waves often regain 23.6-38.2 % of the previous 3^road The wave, which means an extension of 76.4 % at $ 5498 is enough. Moreover, we can now re -add “”Great Miss“From the index by not hitting $ 6260 and instead it reached its peak at $ 6147. It will be logical to be the highest irregular wa wave to correct the extensive flat wave. See Figure 3 below. In such a correction, WB is larger than WA, and the C. C taller.

Figure 3. Elliott wave number for SP500 since March 2020, also known as Covid Low

In this case, Red W-III reached its climax at $ 6128 on January 24, even closer to the ideal goal of $ 6121 from the top of $ 6147 (7p for 26p). Thus, based on the installed patterns of the known time, we find that the index is recently at the bottom of 3 typical 3^road From 3^road The target wave area. Yesterday, as was below at the upper end of 4 typical^Y From 3^road The target wave area. Both were among 0.1 % of the ideal levels based on Fibonacci.

It depends on keeping higher than the lowest level yesterday, the index can gather to 7122-7746 dollars perfect for completing the third most comprehensive wave, W-3 black, in Figure 3. In this case, we expect SPX to target 61.8 % at $ 5116 before starting red WV to 7122-7746 dollars.

Looking at the extent of the moods in the Wall Street currently, the feelings of AIII aim for 57 % for three consecutive weeks for the first time in the history of survey and the Fear & Greed index constantly in great fear since February 25, while the mobilization appears, ral-warring even.Just bounce 300-500 pixelsAt this stage, it appears the most likely scenario.