The risks are high as Canada pays a general electoral campaign, not only for the country but for leaders of the three main national parties.
45 CanadaY The federal elections, which were officially launched on Sunday afternoon, will witness a new prime minister who is elected and a new government comes to power – whatever the result.
Liberal Party leader Mark Carney, who only swore the prime minister last week after his election, will seek to replace Justin Trudeau, to return the liberals to power for the fourth time in 10 years. Conservative leader Pierre Boelifri will seek to take advantage of the years of anger in the liberal brand and install his party in power for the first time since Stephen Harper’s defeat in 2015.
Meanwhile, the new Democrats fight for oxygen in the competition in which the captain Jaghmit Singh’s last kick in the box. Bloc Québecois faces similar opposite winds, as it regains the Carney liberal in the province.
The competition will be held against the backdrop of unprecedented economic attacks by US President Donald Trump against Canada, and at a time of almost uncertainty on the world stage, with a conflict in Ukraine and the Middle East, which is an increasing muscle China and the threat of climate change.
No pressure.
It also occurs in the context of a dramatic swing, if not unprecedented in the national ballot. Conservatives have enjoyed a comfortable progress difference over liberals in the preference of voters since Poiliefre took over in 2022, which leads to percentage points from two numbers for several months at a time.
This seems to have changed after Justin Trudeau resigned as prime minister in January. Since then, the liberals have grown steadily in its popularity among the voters, and according to most national opinion polls, it has now been linked or enjoyed with a slight progress to the conservatives.
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The latest IPSOS survey, which was published on Tuesday, found that if federal elections are now held, the liberals will get a percentage point point to conservatives by 42 percent of voter support – compared to 36 percent for Poilievre conservatives. This is seven percentage swing in just three weeks.
The National Democratic Party decreased to support only 10 percent of the voters who decided. The Democratic Democrats usually benefit the liberals, as the “progressive” voters move to the red team to prevent conservative victory.
More importantly, for Poiliefre and the conservatives, the respondents’ opinions about who will be the best prime minister, especially when the government faces existential economic threats from the Trump administration.
IPSOS found that 42 percent of the respondents view Carne – not yet tested by the campaign – as the best choice for the prime minister, as Poiliefre led by 10 degrees Celsius.
Canadians elect deputies, not prime ministers, but party leaders usually have a major role in persuading voters.
(IPSOS survey was conducted between March 14 and March 17 on behalf of Global News, and a sample size of 1000 Canadians of voting age was accurate within 3.8 percentage points.)
But even a tie does not necessarily mean throwing. Since conservative support is traditionally concentrated in western Canada, even if they are opinion polls, this means that liberals have an advantage because their vote is more efficient and focused in seat rich provinces such as Ontario and Cubic.
While supporting the strong conservative Party in provinces such as Alberta and Saskatchewan can line up national voting numbers, it does not translate into the seats they need to form the government. The conservatives won the popular vote in both 2019 and 2021, but the liberals were still able to form minority governments.
If the conservatives get a victory, Poilievre will be seen as a savior inside the party – which led them to the government as a “real” governor after the center turned from the former leader Erin O Atoole, and after Andrew Sher’s disappointing loss in 2019.
If they lose, Poilievre will be the third conservative leader, respectively, who sits in the opposition after his failure to dismiss an unpopular liberal administration. None of his ancestors’ leadership escaped a general loss in the elections.
Poiliefre’s grip on conservatives is much stronger than O Atoole’s or Scheer, but O Atoole or Scheer had no time or the internal support for the internal support to prepare for their opportunity. The conservative loss, after long, in national opinion polls, may lead to another round of searching for the soul.
Carney, at the same time, has an opportunity to either revive the liberal party from the brink of collapse-another time-or become the shortest prime minister in modern Canadian history. The former central bank has never run in an electoral campaign, even to win a seat in the House of Commons, and ascends against the most experienced and experienced activists in Poilievere and Singh.
These are the third general elections that the new Democrats will lead, and the two previous two did only a few of the party’s wealth in the House of Commons. In 2015, during the reign of Thomas Mulkir, the party won 44 seats, 19.7 percent of popular votes. In 2019, Singh supervised a campaign that reduced the party to 24 percent by 16 percent of the votes, and in 2021, the party returned 25.8 % of votes.
With the exception of Mulcair, the new Democrats do not have many traditions of decimal party leaders after the elections, but three losses in the general elections are more chances of what most party leaders get, whatever the party.
The campaigns are important, because the wisdom received in Ottawa always reminds us. Nothing on the second day of the campaign necessarily indicates the location of the Canadians for election day on April 28.
One thing is certain in this campaign, however, is that the change comes to Ottawa, in one way or another.
& Copy 2025 Global News, a Division of Corus Entertainment Inc.
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